In recent years I have witnessed the descriptions of several resource peaks, from oil to water, grain to gold, and peak economy. One additional resource peak that has drawn my attention over the last several months, occurring even as I write this piece, is “peak” education.
Education is the sacred political issue that no one tampers with, at least until now. As state revenues decline across the country, state institutions of higher learning are reeling from cuts in state support, and are raising tuitions at unprecedented rates. Public schools are finding their state allocations cut, and consequently have begun making painful cuts to programs, teacher salaries, benefits, and maintenance. Utah has even considered eliminating the 12th grade, making that year of study an optional choice for students.
Ever increasing energy has been the foundation for modern society during the past several hundred years. First it was coal, and then came oil. In between the wind was harnessed to pump water, mill grain, and sail ships to facilitate commerce. As energy allowed more and more work to be done by machine, access to additional energy sources made the mechanized process faster and cheaper than manual labor.
Energy began to work its way into our everyday lives. Additional energy required more education to expand its uses. Formal education began to be the norm. High school developed after the mid 1800’s when it became apparent that soldiers needed more education to be effective using the new weapons that energy made possible. Our society became more complex and dependent upon additional education to utilize all of the additional energy and the revenue it provided.
Now, our society has come to resemble a giant mechanical watch with a broken winding stem. Energy, now in the form of an unwinding main spring, provides the power to move all of the gears in unison. One of those gears is education. As the main spring winds down, all the gears begin to move more slowly. With the faulty winding stem, everyone is seeking alternate methods to rewind the main spring of energy resource. We are finding many alternatives insufficient, turning the winding stem only a quarter turn or so.
As the energy supply providing the revenue becomes less effective, so do all of those society pieces that depend on the main spring, energy, for their function to continue at the previous pace. Education will shrink, along with law enforcement, fire protection, infrastructure maintenance and other public services dependent upon the revenue supplied by the weakening mainspring of energy.
What follows when the education gear begins to slow down, along with the other gears? At first there will be small things, elimination of field trips, less frequent replacement of textbooks, infrequent updates to lab equipment or computers, larger class sizes, etc. Then the changes become more pronounced. We begin to see things like fewer teachers, elimination of extracurricular activities, drastically reduced bussing, deferred maintenance, and elimination of non-core educational offerings. Further slowing of the education gear will bring about serious discussion at the state levels regarding the amount of education that can be supplied on reduced energy revenue. At some point, the current K-12 structure could be seriously questioned and revamped. Are you seeing or hearing discussions of any of the above items in your school districts today? I am not aware of any school district that isn’t dealing with one or more of these issues.
This phenomenon will not be confined solely to public school systems. Private schools and universities/colleges will be facing a similar fate. Today’s economy is a dismal landscape for a recent graduate to venture into. With reduced revenues, private schools and colleges/universities will raise tuitions, while paring back degree offerings. Many who before would have chosen a college education will now be forced to reconsider the costs and rewards. The university I attended was huge, some 25,000 students on campus at that time. Today it has over 50,000 students. Sustaining an infrastructure of that size will be no more possible than sustaining a city infrastructure for a 400 square mile city, when the energy driven spring winds down.
This can’t happen you think; education is too important. Do you think we are the first society to pose that thought? Many skills and technologies have been gained, and then lost over the centuries, only to be re-discovered in recent times. Storage batteries were in use around 300 B.C. After the fall of the Roman Empire, it would be nearly 1400 years before they were “re-discovered”. Similar things have happened with brain surgery, which was in use several hundred years B.C. and then lost with the fall of the Roman Empire, and not “re-discovered” until the 1930s. Education all but vanished in the “Dark Ages”.
I believe that we reached peak education at some time in the last five or six years. We are presently on a plateau now, but as energy and revenue derived from all functions dependent on it decline, so will education. In the next 24 months or so, it will become obvious to many (even with the cooked book statistics we are fed), that future growth of our economy will be miniscule when compared to what it was in the past. Without that growth, there can be no increase in the public services that we take for granted, only reductions.
Just like peak oil, there are no bright spots on the horizon for the future of public services such as an educational system. How will we cope, and what will be the total impact on society as a whole? Only time will tell.
Chuck
Jack Goldstone introduced the idea that the demands for higher education were linked to population crises in pre-modern Europe. When you read what was going on in 17th century England, it sounds a lot like what is going on today. The second sons of the elite, and the up and coming middle class battling over newly scarce positions (relative to people applying) by degreeing-up.
Hi Kathy,
I became a teacher 16 years ago after my aviation career wound down and nagging injuries stopped me from returning to work as a carpenter. Over this time I have experienced non-stop cuts in funding and resources. Here, in BC Canada, we have fought continual cuts or freezes in pay, benefits, resources, and have seen continual increases in both class size and reduced support services for students with special needs. Designations have also changed. As an example, a student with a barely functioning iq level will receive no remedial help, whatsoever…they are simply put into elective ‘dummy classes’ and receive a school leaving certificate. I could go on and on about this with numerous examples, but when my colleagues complain with amazement at the blatant nastiness of cuts and attacks, I ask them if they think our Govt. health care would be cut before education? The simple truth, is that while Canada has a more robust petro-based economy than US, the gravey is thinning to the point that if education and health care expenses are not restrained, our Provincial economic health will spiral down like so many States already have. It (education) is on the chopping block for sure, but the cuts are couched in terms/concepts like online learning, personalized education plans, distributed learning, flexibility, 21st century learning, etc etc. It all means cuts will continue.
Being peak oil aware for years, and actively planning for a reduced lifestyle with more enduring values than my consumerist friends, (we are the oddball couple that lives in the country and grows most of our food, heats with wood, etc), our biggest challenge is explaining why this modern orgy will not and cannot continue. Hell, in this digital age we can find whatever information we need to and use our time to focus in on our own values, friends, and family. I, for one, will not be sorry to see all peaks lessen our distractions, greed, and sense of entitlements. Industrial education is definitely on the list. It is right up there with industrial pre-cooked food and overpaid entertainers. It is time to get back to the basics, anyways.
As an aside, over the last few years I have noticed that as the electronics have become more sophisticated and the interactive touch screens more addictive, the kids are dumbing down down down. Very few even read for pleasure, much less read for research or learning. It is scary out there.
Paolo is largely correct in his analysis of trends in BC. His comments about electronics are interesting, as well. Case in point: a recent ad for one of the major computer companies offered a back-to-university sale on its laptops providing the carrot bonus of an X-Box! Yup, that’s what university is for: playing World of Warcraft or some similar nonsense.
Nicole Foss just drew my attention to this piece, discussing the same issue: Welcome to the Third World, Part 8: A PhD Is Now a “Path to Poverty”
http://dollarcollapse.com/welcome-to-the-third-world/welcome-to-the-third-world-part-8-a-phd-is-now-a-path-to-poverty/
Back in April, I wrote a precursor article in Peak Oil Blues called “Where Will the Grandchildren Live” which touches on the declining educational situation. Because so much of our “knowledge” is delivered and stored electronically with the faulty assumption that it will always be available, we have placed ourselves in the same societal position of losing knowledge and skills over the short span of one generation as ancient societies before us. Dr. K. is witnessing the leading edge of that process. Chuck