Every year about this time, little snow globes with winter scenes, snowmen and Santa appear on store shelves. As long as they are not disturbed the “snow” stays at the bottom of the globe. Shake the snow globe, and you have an instant blizzard. Fortune tellers, on the other hand, have frequently employed crystal balls to foresee the future. So what happens when you combine the two globes?
You get a situation that gives a glimpse of the future from current events that occurred during an intense snow storm. On Oct 29, the Northeastern part of the US was blanketed by a very heavy snow storm, unusual for its intensity this early in the winter season. The trees, still having their fall foliage, acted like giant strainers, catching and trapping much of the heavy wet snow. Predictably, the snow laden branches came crashing down on power lines all over the Northeast, blacking out large areas. The state of Connecticut was especially hard hit, the second time in as many months.
At first the inconveniences of the power outage were endured for a few days. Not only were residences affected, but the business sector was also powerless from the effects of this intense storm. After three or four days, people were becoming impatient, especially in hard hit Connecticut. After about a week of being without power, the public was getting very upset with the pace of power restoration, complaining loudly and frequently to their government officials and the utility. What made them even more distressed were the daily pronouncements from the utility and government officials that the power will all be restored “tomorrow”. Tomorrow came and went, in the dark. Even today, some 15 days after the initial snow fell, there are isolated places in Connecticut without electricity.
Being without electricity is very distressing. I know from experience. In 2005, we had an ice storm in early January that knocked out power in our neighborhood for 9 days. It was an eye-opener to see how dependent we had become on the genie in the wall outlet.
Peering into this combo snow globe-crystal ball of the Oct 29 storm, what can we foresee? Well, I think we can see what the public reaction will be when we start having energy shortages in the fossil fuel sectors. First, there may be annoyed resignation over the service stations being out of fuel. After three or four days pass and still no fuel, annoyance may turn to anger. After seven or eight days, anger may give way to rage. The public won’t have the visual reminders that a snow storm has left behind. Instead, there won’t be any fuel energy, and the sky may be sunny, and the birds are chirping. The culprit for their discomfort won’t be anywhere in sight. Public and private leadership will be passing the same information, “Tomorrow, everything will be restored”.
We in the peak oil community keep wondering when someone in leadership, either in the government, or in industry will own up to the dilemmas of peak oil. The truth is, they never will utter the words “peak oil”. To do so would beg the questions of “Exactly what did you know, and when did you first learn of it?” and “Why have you done nothing to prepare for this situation?”
What comes after rage? It all depends on the individual, and their circumstances in life. You may have rage turn to action, such as the Occupy movement. That will probably not be as effective or visible, because the fuel won’t be as available for them to travel to a point of protest. I believe rage will morph into fear. As the realization that a “normal” tomorrow isn’t likely a part of our future, the fear will encroach on everyone’s lives. People with great fear are prone to making all sorts of bad decisions, even those in top levels of government.
I feel we will see much of our remaining resources squandered, both individually and collectively, in an effort to re-establish some kind of familiar normal. The only way I know to prevent this type of activity personally, and calm some of the butterflies in our stomach, is to do a little something every day, every week, every month to prepare you for the inevitable decline in our energy futures.
We know in the peak oil community, that the day of permanent loss of personal fossil energy is drawing close. By preparing now for this future, we are letting the “snow” in our personal snow globe settle out, so we can see our choices for the future clearly. Most, unfortunately, will be trapped by the “snow” in a physical, mental, and emotional blizzard within their personal snow globes and therefore see no future. Our society is in for great turmoil, the likes of which we have never seen.
Take a sheet of paper. Write one thing you have done in the last 30 days to prepare for the future. If the page is blank, then my crystal ball sees a blizzard in your personal snow globe.
A snow shovel won’t help!
Chuck
One thing that helps me is to try stuff out. Light the kerosene or veggie oil lamps, and sit in the quiet light.
Magical family stories can come out. Play some Uno or checkers, no tv.
Live without running water for a few hours- you may discover the usefulness of a plastic pitcher and dishpan to wash hands, then use waste water to flush.
Put some nice small rounded rocks on the top of the woodstove- and use them for handwarmers on a cold day or night. Keep a blanket by every comfortable chair, and lower the thermostat.
Use fleece blankets instead of sheets, and be warmer at night.
Lots and lots of easy small things that make your life comfortable, cost little, and give you more and more bits of control, as the world goes quietly out of control.
I think I got the formula right for my rant on electric cars: the sacred cow of a cargo cult
We in the peak oil community keep wondering when someone in leadership, either in the government, or in industry will own up to the dilemmas of peak oil.
You mean when someone else other than R.B. will own up.
We have an abundance of energy from various sources, and there is not the slightest chance of the depletion of which you seem so afraid. The Stone Age did not end because we ran out of stone, but if we are in the Energy Age, then it will go on as long as civilisation remains. The big risks are political ones.
In the Pollyanna World of Make Believe Dreams based on “The Secret” Hope Fantasy that little glass snowball will start a blizzard on the day the fillup station ration will only give out 5 gallons max to everyone including the Ford Exploder owners who may have to hoof it back unprepared but with their sneaker feet as the 40 mile trip sputters to a stop. But if they visualize that their frost-bitten toes aren’t crumbling off they might just get home safely, fire up their 50,000 watt generac with a max life of 100 hours newly purchased from Home Despot from the last freak snowstorm and settle down in front of their 3000 square inch stereo surround a sound stupid box and continue to fall back into the dream until some interlopping opportunistic felons with an auto with plastic carbine stumble their way in because the auto alarm system is down and they were the only house on the block with lishts still shining. But as the theives enter hoping for some grub, finding the cupboards empty except for some “cheese that goes crunch” the McMansion owners will find that all attempts at readjusting reality just aren’t working all of a sudden and may be forced to accept a life altering PTSD experiment in that WAAY too many people on the planet MUST be envisioning all types of way bad negative visions that must be dragging them into the vortex of badass shit. That may be the point at which the old snowball goes “plink” and their reality all of a suden becomes crystal clear as all hope of the old life drips out of their ignorant sorry brain dead hides.
I like your blog. Telling it like it is….er, will be.
One thing I’ve done:harvested my bees honey for future storage. How long will honey last? Over a thousand years.
When we think of oil, we picture the gas tank analogy. When the needle reaches E for empty is when we are in trouble. The world does in fact have a trillion barrels of oil left to produce. The real analogy is like a Pearl Harbor reconnaissance plane flying its mission over the ocean. The plane flies as far as it can for as high as it can. The pilot fulfils the mission of aerial photography of enemy positions. At a certain point though the pilot knows he must turn around at the HALF WAY point of the gas gauge to make it back home. When the needle reaches at half the tank the pilot MUST RETREAT and DESCEND to make it back to base. When the world has produced as much oil as it ever can in one day (peaked), when it has flown as far as it can for as high as it can the world economy MUST RETREAT and DESCEND.
Thanks.