Several weeks ago my attention was drawn to the many news clips of engineers climbing around on the Washington Monument looking for potential earthquake damage. My thoughts centered on the idea that they must have nerves of steel, titanium steel at that. It is one thing to be on a tall skyscraper separated safely from outside danger by thick glass or a sturdy fence. These four brave souls had nothing between themselves and danger other than a rope, safety harness, and physical strength and training, along with a focused determination to succeed.

Many will consider their exploits as being fool hardy or reckless. To take such personal risks today may seem unnecessary in our high tech world. I’m certain that these experienced engineers have heard the same kinds of statements for years. Some of their nerves of steel are no doubt reserved for dealing with the critical and uninformed words of the public.

It occurred to me that most of us will have to acquire nerves of steel to deal with our futures. It is unlikely that any of us will be called upon to dangle from a rope 500 feet in the air while performing some function. Our nerves of steel will have to be honed to cope with daily economic calamity coupled with energy shortage. There will be no protective barriers between ourselves and the danger of dwindling energy and economic resources. As time passes, we will find ourselves precariously dangling by a rope above a great unknown. This will require the same degree of nerves of steel that the engineers are using daily in their job.

So how do we go about developing the nerves of steel needed for the future? First of all we must realize that we don’t develop nerves of steel quickly. None of the engineers on the Washington Monument were in their first week on the job. They had trained for years, learning the skills of climbing. They had practiced with their equipment many times and learned from experience its limitations. To the entire world it looked as though they were out on the sides of the monument all alone. In reality, another behind the scenes team was at work on the other end of those ropes, assisting them in their function.

Our quest for nerves of steel will require much the same degree of planning, preparation and support that these courageous engineers possessed. We can’t procrastinate until the day the first “Out of Gas” signs appear in our gas stations, the food shelves are empty, or our debit cards don’t work in the ATM, to begin our planning and preparation. As with the engineers on the monument, much of that work occurs between the ears, well in advance of the challenge. Without such advance planning, we will have to work with nerves of glass or worse.

Secondly these engineers had practiced many times before on much smaller challenges to develop their skills and confidence. They did not crawl out of the windows onto the sides of the Washington Monument with all of their advance planning, see the ground for the first time and allow their fears to overpower their advance preparation. We must do the same. We must become familiar with the tools that we are likely to depend on in the future. We must determine if our water filters will indeed produce clean water. We need to find out if we have a green or a black thumb when it comes to growing food. We can’t assume that we will quickly acquire those skills when we need to use them. If you can’t hit a nail with a hammer today, you need to practice using a hammer now. Otherwise, our nerves will turn to jelly when confronted with our own version of the Washington Monument.

Finally, these engineers were not cubicle or office dwellers all the time. They had to keep working with their primary tool, their bodies, strengthening and conditioning themselves to be able to perform the tasks that lay in front of them. I will be the first to admit that I dwell in the chair too much, graze in the refrigerator all too frequently and that my physical stamina is far less than it should be. Simple walking can go a long way toward getting you started. I ride a bike, but not as much as I need to. Admitting my shortcomings does nothing for my getting into shape. I have to take conscious action in order to obtain useful results. What kind of simple action will you strive to begin with me today to get ready to meet the challenges ahead?

These engineers didn’t accomplish their tasks alone, and neither will we. We will need the help of others on the opposite end of our rope. They can’t be helpers on Facebook, on the other side of town, or out of state. They must be close at hand. Peak Shrink, and many others, have been constantly advising us on the criticality of community in the future that we all face. That is not just geographic community in terms of dwelling between city limit signs, unless yours is a small community. It is the community of your closest neighbors. In the urban setting, one or two blocks at most. In the rural setting it may be within a couple of miles around you. We will have to pool our resources to obtain the skills, transportation, protection, and daily sustenance that we all will need. Hanging a label of introvert on yourself will not assist you with meeting the life challenges ahead. You will need to step up and step out to begin building that necessary community around you. In our neighborhood, one neighbor was moved several years ago to invite people living around them into their home once a month for a pot luck dinner. Eight or nine families now regularly come together to eat and fellowship every month. We share our aches and pains, our skills and resources, our victories and our failures, and now also a sense of belonging. This simple gesture has collectively developed in us nerves of steel attitudes, for we are not facing the future challenges alone.

Your personal Washington Monument is dead ahead. It may not be 550 feet high. It may only be 50 feet high, but it could also be 1000 feet high.

What will you begin doing TODAY to develop your own nerves of steel, and to prepare you to conquer your own upcoming Washington Monuments?

Chuck

I don’t know about you, but these past couple of weeks have been a real roller coaster for the economy. Amusement parks would be hard pressed to come up with a ride as scary as this past week. Not only was the economic ride a scary one here, it was scary in most of the developed world as well. Unfortunately this ride is far from being over.

It was interesting to see some people going through the past weeks totally oblivious to the wild economic gyrations, while others reacted negatively to its many ups and downs. The latter group looks desperately for some indication that the ride is about at its end. Many are beginning to realize that this wild economic ride is just getting started, and you can see the realization in their faces and hear it in their conversations. Even the talking heads of the media are showing a few extra wrinkles in their brows.

There are many indications that the economic roller coaster has just paused briefly at the top of a small rise before it starts a breathtaking dip again. This time there may be upside down loops, tight high speed curves, dark tunnels, and lots of yelling. Despite our begging for the scary ride to end, it will continue on. The media talking heads will exhaust their phrases to describe the indescribable.

Much of the developed world bought tickets for this ride many decades ago. We were seated in the cars and the bar lowered to our laps to secure us in place as it started. Now the ride is underway and there is no stopping place to get off of the economic roller coaster. The leaders in the first cars keep shouting instructions. If we would just lean this way or that way at the same time the ride will smooth out. We know deep inside that none of these exhortations will have any effect, but we half heartedly do them anyway.

Seated along with us in this Economic roller coaster is our riding companion, Energy. With every severe dip of the coaster, Energy gets a little sicker. In the dips, there is less capital for exploration and development, and Energy becomes less and less of what it was at the beginning of the ride.

At some point in time, the economic roller coaster will coast into the platform (coast being the operative word) and we will get off, spent and feeling ill. Then we will discover that we still have to get on the remaining Energy roller coaster for more fun than we can stand.

Many who rode the economic roller coaster of the Great Depression, finished their ride vowing never to get on it again, and spent the rest of their lives saving everything, and accumulating great quantities of “stuff” around them. Unfortunately, they had to endure the horrors of war after their economic ride was over. Fortunately they didn’t have to get on another roller coaster after finishing the first. We won’t be so fortunate.

Watching the public hand wringing after this past week’s ride I wonder what the future holds when we hit the next gut wrenching drops and turns. For the most part the ride will be unpredictable; when we think it will go up it will go down, when we think it will go right it will go left. This will challenge our mental state, creating internal stress and discomfort. The only advice I offer is to take a deep breath, tighten your seat belt, stow your tray table and return your seat back to an upright position, the path ahead appears to be turbulent and noisy.

We too, can survive.

Chuck

On the face of my barometer are sections marked “Fair” –“ Change”, and “Stormy”. In Spring, Fall and Winter, we frequently see the needle pointing to the “Change” portion of the dial, and occasionally to the “Stormy” section. In Kansas in the summertime, the barometer mainly remains in the “Fair” section, which translates to only one thing—-HOT. In the Spring, one takes notice when the pointer falls into the “Change” category. Most residents of Kansas and Oklahoma don’t need a barometer or weather forecast to tell them change is coming. It’s like a sixth sense; you develop an awareness of the sky and the winds. Pets sense it too, and adopt a watchful attitude, while sticking close to their pet humans. When the pointer drops into the “Stormy” section, we begin to observe people driving more aggressively, and displaying a frantic mode of thinking. Storm spotters know that the greatest danger to themselves is usually not the storm, but the people on the road around them.

One factor that tends to accentuate human and animal behavior is not only the fact that the barometer is falling, but also the rate at which it is falling. When it drops rapidly, I notice that my anxiety level has a marked increase. Aching joints that normally are a minor nuisance become more troublesome. I see more aggressive driving behavior. Aggressive behavior is more in evidence as weather changes approach. People notice and become attentive to the clouds, even if they don’t know what the cloud formations mean.

Within the first 7 months of this year, I have detected a steady and now accelerating fall in the national mood barometer. Reading news reports from other areas of the globe, it appears that national mood barometers abroad are also falling. From the mounting civil unrest in many nations, I would conclude that their mood barometers have been dropping very fast. People seem more prone to quick upset in these conditions. My wife and I have commented to each other in recent days that it seems we find ourselves the recipient of someone’s foul mood, or the observer of other’s upsets more frequently than in days past.

We look to our leaders for guidance, but what do we see? We see mostly acrimonious debate over one issue or another, neither side seeking common ground. So what is this “low pressure” condition that is causing all the national mood indicators to fall into the “Change” or “Stormy” areas of their respective national barometers? “Low pressure” indicates the absence of something, which pulls the indicator into the “Change” or “Stormy” category. In the realm of weather, it is air pressure.
On the surface, it would appear that the national mood indicator in the USA is pretty much being driven by “low economic pressure”. Not a day that goes by without our being informed of some new negative economic event that tends to drop the pressure further. In various regions of the country, we see the local mood barometers slipping close to the “Stormy” segment of the dial as economic low pressure intensifies.

My home barometer is mechanical, and has some inherent friction in its mechanism. At times the dial indicator doesn’t appear to move, and a slight bump or tap will cause the indicator to take up its new position. My “weather” anxiety may be elevated, but the dial remains unmoving, because of friction. I’m afraid that many national mood indicators are stuck because of inherent system friction, or even outright manipulation. The anxiety level is still increasing, but there is no confirmation as to its cause. What do people do when they have anxiety and cannot determine the source of disruption? They tend to react by lashing out at other individuals, groups or situations, to relieve their own discomfort.

Although “economic low pressure” seems to be the driving element for the dropping national mood barometers, “economic low pressure” doesn’t just happen all by itself. Sometimes our own activity creates conditions that are conducive for it to form. Many times it is brought into our lives by outside forces. In the case of weather, low pressure areas are moved along by the jet stream, and they cross our lives, sometimes with calamitous results. The main external driver now steering “economic low pressure” in our direction appears to be Energy.

Energy seems to be the “man behind the curtain” from the movie”The Wizard of Oz”. Energy seems to be pulling all the levers that make fearsome clouds of “low economic pressure” appear all around us. To be sure, mankind has done a pretty good job recently of making economic confetti, but Energy still plays a giant role in the economic soap opera going on about us.

As I look at the markets this morning, it is pretty clear that the national mood barometer is probably headed lower this week, still reeling from last week’s dismal economic news. At what point does the national mood barometer slide from “Change” to “Stormy”? No one really knows. Neither do we know how turbulent it will be in the stormy section. How will you recognize that your mood has slipped into the “Stormy” category? What actions will you take to relieve your anxieties? Will they be constructive actions? The time to prepare your life for the changes ahead is now. The “economic low pressure” may be ready to trigger a storm at any moment.

Now is the time to pay close attention to the darkening clouds around us. Even if we don’t fully understand what they mean, any increase in cloudiness says that the storms may be near.
Have your “Stormy” weather mindset and gear ready.

Chuck

My wife suggested that I write an article on the Land of the Pharaohs, not Egypt where the Kings of the Nile ruled, but right here and now, in the land of modern day Pharaohs. These modern day Kings are the Pharaohs of Industry, Pharaohs of Finance, Pharaohs of Media, Pharaohs of Education, and Pharaohs of Politics, all ruling over the Land of Denial. All exhibit one common trait….avoidance of giving credibility to existing difficult dilemmas, and a persistent refusal to address them.

Lately it appears I am watching a massive reenactment of the classic tale “The Emperor’s New Clothes”. All the Pharaohs/Emperors tell us that everything is just fine; all plans are working properly as designed. We are urged to ignore obvious, growing realities, and to go along on our merry way. We are receiving a wide spectrum of optimistic, official sounding reports, assuring us that the Pharaoh’s/Emperor’s New Clothes are as magnificent and genuine as we would wish them to be. The problem is that a portion of the worldwide population is coming to a new realization, that their own perception of reality is not flawed, but indeed, appallingly clear. Underneath their cloaks and credentials, the Pharaohs/Emperors are clearly without a stitch of real clothing, regardless of the presumed credibility official reports portray.

We have all been critical of the Pharaohs ruling over the Land of Denial, remarking to each other “Surely they must know?” and asking “Why don’t they inform us of what is ahead?”. Considering the fact that there are all types of data that show massive problems looming just over the next hill with Energy, Economy, and Environment, what is the information/communication holdup?

But wait a minute; things aren’t always as simple as we wish they were in the Land of Denial. I searched my own thoughts as to how I would proceed as a Pharaoh in the Land of Denial.
Basically I saw three different options:
1. Go open and public with the existing information as we know it about Energy and Economy, including potential disruptions and depravations that will accompany the approaching energy or economic decline. There would follow a necessary appeal for public cooperation.
2. Make the public aware of an energy or economic decline in a general sense, and outline potential steps to deal with the situation as well as what actions are underway to control the impact on the population.
3. Smile into the cameras, remain quiet, deny the existence of the inevitable oncoming change, and hope that some new oil find, scientific discovery or economic miracle will manifest itself in time before the population becomes too impatient or restless with the situation. This option inevitably allows Pharaoh to depart with the golden chariot, leaving the irreconcilable mess behind to be inherited by the next Pharaoh.
As a backdrop to these scenarios, we must realize once again that Energy is married to Economy, and Environment is a close relative. Even more distressing, Economy is on life support, plasma is running low, and diluted saline solution is being substituted in its place.

Now let’s speculate over the possible outcomes the Pharaohs might have with each of these 3 scenarios. With scenario 1, such a move would probably pull the plug on Economy’s life support system, and Economy would expire much sooner than anyone had ever believed possible. The impacts on the population would be swift, and devastating. Cooperation will be the last thing the population would offer to the Pharaohs in the Land of Denial. As with some processes in the real world, the phrase “Results may be unpredictable” may truly describe the public reaction to the Pharaohs becoming openly honest. Although we have heard many times that “honesty is the best policy”, in this case, it may not have the most livable outcome.

Scenario 2 looks to have promise as a possible approach, or does it? Creating public awareness of a truly distressing set of dilemmas will generate a call to action. Action in this case needs more than words, it needs capital, capital that a weakened Economy will be hard pressed to deliver. Uh oh! Yank the saline solution IV to free up capital and replace it with tap water from the restroom. Economy gets weaker. Not a pretty picture. Public frustration with the lack of progress on any front of the Energy/Economy dilemma, and we wind up with “Revolving Door Pharaohs”, coming and going so quickly that we start attaching their names on the Pyramids with Velcro. This scenario, it appears, would only have a chance of working if Economy is in robust health.

Scenario 3, even though by appearance seems a cowardly approach to meeting the coming Energy crisis tied to Economic crisis, is the only scenario that buys precious time to prioritize tasks and projects against available capital. That time may reduce the impacts of coming change, before divulging to the public the magnitude of what looms before us. Unfortunately, the Pharaohs seem to spend this precious preparation time engaged in frivolous pursuits. Does the phrase “Nero fiddling while Rome burns” seem an appropriate description?

Scenario 3 only is workable if you have real leaders serving as Pharaohs, holding key positions, with definite goals and directions for declining Energy, Economy, and Environment.

Meanwhile many Pharaohs continue on transacting “business as usual”, preserving their positions, perks, and extra-curricular activities, and in the meantime paying off the special interests that are truly financing them. Can you imagine what the magnificent structures of the Egyptian Pyramids would look like if the current crop of Pharaohs were trying to build them today? Scary thought.

Although most of us find Scenario 3, the Land of Denial, to be somewhat distasteful and unsatisfying, it appears it does buy us time. The Pharaohs around us may continue to squander this time chasing lollipops and the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. However, you and I do not have to engage in this same folly. Many of us have worked through the denial phase with peak oil already, and developed some acceptance of the dilemma as it unfolds before us. We can now move on.

Undoubtedly, some decisions by the Pharaohs in the Land of Denial will greatly complicate and hinder our personal efforts to prepare for a different world, but we must persevere.

Our tasks are straightforward, Survive, Thrive, and Encourage others to participate with us, even if the thriving part will be less than we are accustomed to today.

Preparing ourselves, we will be miles ahead, while the Pharaohs in the Land of Denial continue insignificant debating over how many sides a pyramid should have.

Chuck

PS: Thanks DW for the inspiration for this article; I hope I have done it justice.

Over the past few weeks I have read several books and articles exploring both the Economy, and Energy, the “E”s. I had been taken aback in these various readings, discovering that there was a disconnect within their narratives. Many of these were written as if the Economy and Energy not only were not married, but not even close friends.

I began to wonder if perhaps the authors were trying to paint a happy face on an otherwise somber situation. It is hard to find any good news about either our energy or our economic dilemmas. Many authors seem almost oblivious to the fact that Energy and Economy are married and have a very close relationship. I sometimes find even my own thinking tainted by the idea that the two “E”s can pretty much exist apart, one without the other.

Many writers seem persuaded that most of our energy woes can be solved by alternate technology or energy, without a thought being given to how can we borrow enough money to pay for these alternate sources to be developed. For example, the media darling that is trotted out frequently is the notion of travel by high speed electric rail across the US. The only fly in the ointment is that Energy’s spouse, Economy, somehow has to come up with hundreds of billions, or more, to implement Energy’s vision.

There is the notion that Economy is getting stronger every day, but with no thought being given to Economy’s spouse, Energy. Little or no acknowledgement is given to the fact that Economy’s feasting and growth is directly dependent upon “spouse”, Energy, burning itself out each and every day at work. Complicating things, Energy is becoming harder to supply to Economy’s job site.

Over the years, I have developed a visual image of the Energy/Economy marriage. It is a boiler. The contents of the boiler are money, facilities, raw material, machines and people (ie; Economy). Some money is used to acquire the energy that has to be burned under this boiler so that its contents can do meaningful work. A boiler with a small energy fire underneath it eventually will get warm, but not enough steam will be produced to perform meaningful work. It takes massive Energy input in order for Economy to flourish. Unfortunately it is catching our attention that Energy is less plentiful and more expensive than it has been in the past.

That means the Energy fire beneath the boiler is going to be turned down. Adding more contents to the boiler in the form of money, as our government has been doing for many months, will accomplish nothing if the energy input under the boiler becomes less intense, and requires more of the economic contents in the boiler to acquire. Energy’s spouse, Economy, cannot continue to live as in the past.

Soon, our media outlets will finally begin to realize that Energy and Economy indeed have been married for a long time, and that many of the upsets in Economy have been tied directly to the behavior of “spouse”, Energy. As in any marriage, an upset spouse is sometimes the result of an action taken by the other spouse without consultation or coordination. So it is with the marriage of Energy and Economy. One reacts in relation to the actions of the other.

Watching the interactions between this couple, I am concerned that they may now be far beyond counseling. How soon will we have irreconcilable differences and both Energy and Economy go their separate ways, each being reduced from what they were together?

As with any marriage involving children, a marital breakup is usually hardest on the children.
We are Economy’s and Energy’s children.

Chuck

School is out, and it is time to begin the annual celebration of summer. As a kid I remember the excitement and anticipation of the last day of school. The summer beckoned with promises of all sorts of adventures with my friends on our trusty bikes. No matter how far we rode, we never seemed to completely exhaust our energy. What great memories were made In the Good Old Summertime.

But something happened in the five plus decades since then. Instead of the bright eyed young children going out to explore on their own, they were somehow enrolled in every organized activity that could be found. The Good Old Summertime soon had to have a schedule which rivaled that of the airlines in and out of O’Hare airport. Instead of exploring the world around them by bicycle, riding a bicycle merely became another skill to check off for the summer “to do” list. The Good Old Summertime, for the most part began to look like the “rat race” mom or dad was engaged in all the time.

When the youngsters are not at practice, a game, or some other organized event, they are at home nurturing themselves with the latest game on x-Box. Social interaction is determined by the team organization. Making all this work takes a lot of energy. Mom’s Taxi doesn’t run on good intentions, it takes the hard liquid stuff.

This year a curious thing is starting to happen here. We have the high fuel prices like we did three years ago, but this time we have the higher everything else prices as well. This weekend the wife and I were going to dine with friends, and we noticed a sight we never had seen in the past. Everywhere we looked, on bike paths and at intersections, were whole families on brand new bikes with brand new helmets exploring their immediate world. Toddlers were in little bicycle trailers, young children, teenagers, and mom and dad all were riding….and smiling.

One might think that the weather must have been extra nice to bring all these folks out for the one ride of the summer. It was not riding weather for me, and I ride a bike a lot. It was 63, cloudy, windy and a light mist in the air. I thought maybe it was just a fluke. The next two days were sunny, with 30 mph wind gusting to over 40mph. Bicycles were still there. Everywhere! Have you ever tried to ride a bike in 30 mph wind? It will quickly tell you how out of shape you really are. These are not your trained athletes training for the next Tour de France, but my neighbors having fun together. Not a schedule in sight.

I began to wonder if this could be an early indication of a lifestyle change brought about by high energy and food costs, or just a curious early summer fad. Maybe the numbers at the gas pump are starting to have impact on our revved up lifestyle. Only time will tell. Over the last two years a new word was coined; “staycation”. No one knew what to do with this time at home. Lots of frustration initially came with the “staycation”. Somehow during the last 3 decades we had tied the word “go” to fun and relaxation. When I went to the big box store this afternoon, there were bicycles for sale on the sidewalk in front of the store. Not 15 or 20 bicycles as I have seen before, but maybe a hundred of them, all sizes, features and colors.

Could it be that many of the population are sensing that something is different this Good Old Summertime? They may never have heard of “peak oil”, but they see the prices at the pump, the grocery store, the big box store, and they are all higher. Every economic downturn in the past 4 decades came and went in under 18 months. This summer, economic lethargy now marks year 3. No matter what the politicians, news media, or financial gurus tell us, we are seeing something else transpire before our eyes, and it isn’t improvement.

I hope that the trend I observed this weekend will continue throughout the summer. If so, it will signal a fundamental shift in thinking that we thought would not be possible until fuel was much more expensive and scarce. A population that adopts change without being forced by circumstance or decree will be the foundation of community that we will need in the “less oil” future. The first robin or flower in the spring brings encouragement that better days are coming. Perhaps the family bicyclists are the first flower of encouragement for what lies ahead for all of us.

I certainly hope so. That truly will make this the Good Old Summertime.
Chuck

Back in my college days I had a pair of very dark aviator sunglasses (shades) that I thought to be really cool. They were so heavily tinted that if you walked into a building or shady area, it was as if you were momentarily blind, not so cool. In two and a half years, I literally wore out this set of frames, and had to get another pair, not so heavily tinted. In my flying years, I bought another set, dark enough to do the job, but light enough to see the instrument panel clearly. They were still cool looking, but this time served a very necessary function.

We have all heard the phrase “looking at a situation or person through rose colored glasses” to describe a person or persons who refuse to recognize a situation or person in their true reality. They hope for the tint of the glasses to obscure the unpleasantness directly in front of their eyes. In a sense, the tinted “rose colored” glasses have rendered them partially or completely blind to the reality around them. Unfortunately, people wearing tinted glasses make decisions, sometimes affecting only themselves, sometime affecting others of us. Sometimes we are the ones wearing the tinted glasses, and refusing to acknowledge reality ahead.

During the past two months we have seen both a major world government and major power company hide behind shades of blindness, attempting to ignore a rapidly and deadly spreading nuclear disaster. It was acknowledged only after the visual evidence became overpowering, that they had to remove their shades to keep from stumbling to the podium to announce their latest bad news. We can all be critical about the practice of officials to continue to ignore the obvious. However, shades of blindness exist much closer to home.

You may have people around you preferring to wear the shades, thinking to be cool. They may include your spouse, your children, your siblings, your parents, your closest friends or your co-workers. I have friends who absolutely refuse to hear anything about Peak Oil or the collapsing economy, because they have not heard it from an “official source”. They have resorted to wearing even more darkly tinted shades in an effort to block out the encroaching reality. They will be the first to say “I sure didn’t see that coming!”, and they will be correct, as they have chosen to obscure their vision.

I wish for a simple formula to encourage wearers to remove their shades, and to recognize and take action on the double E calamity (energy and economy) about to overtake the world around us. The only way that we can begin to collectively address the oncoming problems is to motivate people to become familiar with the issues at stake. They may or may not agree with them, but at least they will know what they are.

We see a large number of our leaders in both public and private arenas making plans, enacting laws, restricting this, permitting that, all done while wearing very dark shades of blindness. Sadly, we will be forced to live with their choices. Many have tried to pry the shades of blindness off of our elected leaders and officials but to no avail. Their prevalent response has mostly been to go to a darker tint to block out what others have begun to see clearly; “Houston, We have a problem”.

For decades, a large percentage of the world’s population has chosen to wear progressively darker shades of blindness, in an effort to ignore unpleasant realities in the world around them. Now we have a giant worldwide energy problem that is increasingly starting to glow like the Fukashima reactors. Soon we will all be forced to realize that there isn’t enough dark tint to hide the obvious.

What will happen when a large population begins to take off the dark tinted shades of blindness and see things as they really are? Will “I sure didn’t see that coming” offer them any solace? I think not. What turmoil will their suddenly cleared vision create in our lives? How will you respond? How can we productively put this new vision to work to lessen the impact of the energy tsunami heading in our direction? What role will you play in the next act of the energy drama that will unfold in your family, your neighborhood or your work? “I told you so” will not win friends or helpers in the coming chapter. You need to think constructively now about ways to help others as they encounter the peak oil obstacles that you have already crossed.

Over the past several years we have seen many admonitions on the Peak Oil sites, including Peak Oil Blues, encouraging us to start thinking “local”. Local food, local work, local entertainment, local friends, and local support to name a few. Because most of our national leadership has chosen to wear very dark shades of blindness, they will be unable to advise or lead in this new reduced oil reality. Leadership hence will tend to be local too. “Who” you might ask will fulfill that role? For starters, YOU have chosen to remove the darkest shades of blindness and are reading information on this site, which puts you ahead of 99 percent of the population. You are a prime candidate in your neighborhood, and among your circle of friends.

“Not so fast” you say; “I’m not a leader, someone else needs to take that role”. In the coming days, a leader in this area need not stand before a crowd with a megaphone urging action, but will simply need to share one on one (or five or six) what they themselves are doing, or are planning to do. They need to be able to point others to the information that paints the true picture that shades of blindness have kept distorted for so long. The kinds of leaders we will need are those who have removed their shades of blindness, rolled up their sleeves, and lead by doing and by sharing.

As you ponder your role in the world of tomorrow, the temptation will be great to hide behind shades of blindness again. You must not succumb to that temptation. You must begin preparing your mind to deal with the reality of a reduced oil lifestyle. And that, my friend, requires unhindered, unwavering clear vision.

Chuck

Watching TV this time of year, we are bombarded with commercials extolling the wonders and enjoyment to be had vacationing in their particular state. Some of these states are close by, others far away. Vacation 2011 isn’t looking very promising for most families this year. We are all seeking some escape from the constant bombardment of bad economic news, bad political news, bad local news, and an overstressed work environment. Vacations used to provide that. But with the miracle of iPhones and iPads, the bad stuff just goes with you anyway, unless you take a cruise.

This year, I believe many will spend their summer vacation (holiday for those in Europe) at some different theme parks than in the past. Where they will spend is at Service StationLand, GroceryLand, and SchoolClothesLand. Our old nemesis, Peak Oil started moving out of the shadows in January, and shows no signs of disappearing into the mist anytime soon, if ever. Peak Oil brought many of his colleagues along for this year’s vacation time; Higher Fuel Prices, Higher Transportation Prices, Higher Food Prices, Higher Medicine Prices, Higher Clothing Prices and Higher About Everything Else Prices. Talk about a bunch of wet blankets at a vacation planning session! Now we have to talk about spending our vacation budget not at some exotic, relaxing, fun location, but at some everyday, routine places, hopefully no more than a mile or two from home.

The old saying “Well, there’s always next year!” may no longer offer much hope either. Affordable vacationing next year will probably be less likely than in this one in terms of energy availability. The summer vacation in 2011 may be where we begin to feel the first raindrops of the approaching energy storm. The clouds have been appearing all spring, with oil prices climbing above $85 a barrel to close to $114 a barrel before falling back somewhat. As with most rainstorms, there can be short lulls and even a ray of sunshine here and there before the rains return. I’m afraid our old nemesis, Peak Oil, will behave like the rainstorm. Except there may not be clearing in a day or two, maybe not in a decade or two.

Vacation 2011 may be your first of many tests in planning for a reduced lifestyle. The first thing you have to adjust is your mental thought processes. With all vacation planning, (now and in the past), you have to manage expectations. This will be a vital skill for the other Peak Oil tests that will follow. No longer can you rely on past experience to predict future outcomes. For men, this goes entirely against our built in wiring. In the corporate years I had a motto for decades with which I managed my life. It was “Deliver what you promise”. A simple statement, a great guideline to use in the work world. But now, in our personal world, it is best we not promise what may not be deliverable. Not even to ourselves. That is the hardest part. In past years we would set our expectations and finagle this, tweak that, delay this, delete that in order to shoehorn a vacation into our budget. Not once did we ever modify our expectations. Now there are things external to us that we cannot tweak, delay, or delete to fit our needs.

For some the turning point in their expectations was 2009, for others 2010. I believe 2011 will become a turning point for a large segment of the population as they find that personal expectations will have to be shoehorned into a declining budget. Ouch. That’s not fair; I haven’t seen all the places I planned to see. We didn’t realize that our expectations come with a finite shelf life. In the past decades, the natural process of aging tended to trim our expectations year after year. What we didn’t expect, even 5 years ago, was that Peak Oil would vastly accelerate the trimming process, even when age was not a factor.

For most of us, over the next 24 months, we will have to readjust our mental processes in a constantly accelerating manner, much like a race driver changes gears on a Le Mans race course. For many, frequent change of mental gears will introduce added stress, from which there will be no vacation available for relief.

So what can you do to lessen the rising tension creeping into our new ways of life?
For starters, develop close at home activities that are rewarding to you and your family now, not when stress is at the boiling point. It is interesting that in watching the “vacation with us” commercials, one of the nearby states that we lived in for ten years had so much to offer that we never knew about. Instead of planning for Vacation 2011, start planning for your reduced oil future. There are no roadmaps, you will have to design your own.

Good luck, may your new map take you to new and exciting places and opportunities.

Chuck