November 18, 2012

Alternate Energy – It may be closer than you think

It is obvious reading all the MSM articles on energy that they still are counting on technology to ride to the rescue of the declining oil age in the form of alternate energy on a white horse.  I wish I shared their optimism, but the facts don’t seem to support that rosy outlook.  I do believe we are closer to the alternate energy that no one wishes to think about.  It is time proven, inexpensive to implement, useful for growing crops, building or repairing houses, transporting you 10-20 miles, but nowhere as efficient as what we use today.  Where is this miraculous alternate energy?  Why it is in your very house.  Get up and go to the bathroom. Take a look in the mirror.  You are looking at the alternate energy of the future that you, your family, and neighbors will have to depend on—-you.

That’s right, you, that miraculous machine that takes in food energy and converts it into useful work.  Wait a minute you say, I am a pencil pushing paper shuffling e-mail dynamo, how is that going to be useful alternate energy in the world unfolding before us?  Well, in a few words, it won’t.  One of the mantras we have heard repeated during this economic downturn, is that to stay employed you have to constantly re-invent yourself.  Welcome to the biggest re-invention you will ever experience, the world’s newest (and oldest!) alternate energy source.  This alternate energy source already runs on bio-fuels without any need to convert its inner workings.  It will work in extreme heat or cold, just not as well as in moderate temperatures.

Uh oh, I think I hear the term physical conditioning coming.  Is this some kind of New Year’s resolution thing?  I don’t do well with those.  Well, those of us who have been to a Dr. in the last 10 years have already heard the speech, so I will dispense with it here.  What I would like to focus on is how we can make better use of this age old form of alternate energy in the future.  If one looks at a copy of an old Sears catalog from the late 1800’s, you will find all sorts of tools to multiply one’s ability to accomplish work.  Some are simple and still in use today, the crowbar and the pulley being two such items.  Others are a little more complex, such as the bicycle.  In order for these to be useful to you, two things must be in place.  First, you must understand how to use these tools in a manner for which they were designed, and their limitations.  Secondly, you must possess or have access to these tools when they are needed.

There is a second way to multiply this alternate energy when needed, recruit other alternate energy supplies to assist you with your task at hand.  This may be the biggest challenge to the new alternate energy.  We have lived several decades, at least one full generation, with the notion that to ask for help is a sign of weakness.  Our pride can be our undoing.  In order for this alternate energy of the future (and the past) to be effective, it will have to be a collective effort in many cases.  Unless you live in a very small community, calling your friend on the other side of town to assist may not be your best idea.  Instead, you will need to start cultivating the fields of neighbors right around you.  The sooner the better.   Not only can you acquire different skill sets by doing so, but you can come up with a way to multiply your tool access in the process.  It will usually be sufficient for there to be only one or two sets of certain tools among your group to accomplish most tasks.  It is very inefficient for everyone to have a copy of the same tool set, if it isn’t used very often.  Part of the process to break the ice, is to have an inventory of your own tools and skills  which you pass to each neighbor with the understanding that they are available if needed, and ask them to add anything to the list they might be able to make available if needed.  This is an early step in making “community” right where you live.

Up to now, this seems to be a “me and mine” or “you and yours” type of arrangement.  There is another group you need to realize your alternate energy will have to be used for.  In your “community of neighbors” will be those whose alternate energy has decreased to a barely functioning level, either by age or physical infirmities, who will have to depend on you and your neighbors to assist with, or in some cases completely take on a task of theirs which is beyond their capability.  In the future, giving them a phone number of a United Way agency or telling them to call an out of town relative for assistance will probably not be an option, and will not discharge your obligations to the “community”.

All of this prepping for the new alternate energy takes something all of us try to hoard, TIME.  Some of your neighbors today will see no reason to invest any of their time in any endeavor of this sort, because they don’t see a problem they can’t solve themselves or with a phone call……..yet.  I’m reminded of times when a strong hurricane is approaching shore, and the population has been put under a mandatory evacuation order, there are still those who want to do it all themselves and stay put, their pride won’t allow them to be anything but completely independent.  Unfortunately, they put others at grave risk trying to rescue them later.  You probably won’t be able to convince a large portion of your neighbor community to work at mutual assistance initially, but seeing it in action can be a powerful incentive.  Somebody from the city or the state is not going to come in to set up the kind of “community” you need, it will have to originate with YOU.  Will you start using your alternate energy productively today?  Let’s hope so.  It may be all we have available in a few years.

 

Chuck Willis

written by Chuck Willis on 1/9/11

 

Filed Under: Community Building, Preparations, Priorities Tagged With: , , , , Leave a Comment
September 9, 2012

The Crisis Shell Game

In the past 18 months it has dawned on me that I have been caught in one of the oldest cons in history, the shell game. This shell game is of a different sort. Let’s call this one the Crisis shell game.

In this game each shell is marked with an “E” standing for Energy, Environment, or Economy (which also includes that other “E”, Europe).

The game has been called by a much older name perhaps more fitting; “thimblerig”. The game is rigged and never can be won. The play of the “game” is simple; a pea or small ball is placed under one of three walnut shells, and they are shifted around several times into various orders, so that the person playing has to guess which shell conceals the object. Guess right and you double your money; a wrong guess you lose your money. Usually there are several “bystanders” who the player has just witnessed “win”.

The only problem is that the pea or object is not beneath any shell at all; it has been palmed by sleight of hand early in the game by the game operator. At the end, after the player has guessed the wrong shell, the operator slips the pea, unseen, underneath one of the remaining shells to prove to the player that he simply had picked the wrong shell.

The Crisis shell game is different though; it is played daily with a whole nation of people. Every morning when I look at the news headlines and I see a Crisis “pea” placed under one of the three “E” shells. Then the bystander media, politicians and various gurus rounded up for the day start moving the shells around, while we try to guess which shell the crisis is underneath for that day. All the while, the paid “bystanders” are shouting that the crisis is under this shell or that shell, trying to influence us to make bad choices. If we reach for the shell representing Energy, voices cry out a resounding “NO, we have 100 years of the stuff left”. If we reach for the shell representing Economy, we get another “NO, we are recovering nicely”. Reaching for the third shell representing Environment, we get another “NO, global warming is a political idea, not fact.”

We then find ourselves frustrated, we pick a shell at random, and of course there is no Crisis pea beneath it. The skilled operators of public opinion have hidden the “Crisis pea” and manipulated us to expend our emotional capital. They cleverly place the “Crisis pea” under one of the other shells, with sleight of hand, and tell us that is where our crisis really is for today. After a while, with all the emotional capital expended, the player eventually wanders away to watch whatever reality show is on TV at the moment. The game operator has achieved the goal, separating you from your emotional capital, so you will not come back to question the shell game more closely. Our response is not to research further information about where the “Crisis pea” is really hiding, or if indeed there really is a “Crisis pea”.

The problem with this is that it leaves us deficient of the emotional capital needed if such a crisis is indeed hiding in our future. As skillful as the manipulators are at concealing the “Crisis pea” from us, there will come a point when the “Crisis pea” can no longer be hidden from our view. The greater issue is that we may find in the end that there were indeed crisis peas beneath each one of the shells. When we are confronted with that possibility, it can overwhelm our ability to cope.

What should we do? First realize that the operators of the Crisis shell game are counting on our gullibility and lack of understanding of issues, to sway us to place our emotional capital in the care of one group or another, without asking too many questions. Secondly, they want us trust everything that the “innocent bystanders” are shouting, without question. Thirdly, all shell games have one single purpose; to separate the player from his financial resources. The Crisis shell game will accomplish the very same thing. It allows the manipulators of the game to convince us to place more financial resources out on the table in the form of extra taxes, fees or service costs to accommodate removing the “Crisis pea” from beneath the shells.

At some point when the “Crisis peas” swell to the size of oranges, they can no longer be concealed underneath the shells. The amount of financial resources needed to remove or reduce the “Crisis pea or Crisis peas” will be greater than we can bear. The manipulators of the game will not be able to play the game when any “Crisis pea” becomes too large to palm. The people who played the Crisis shell game and lost will be extremely upset when they realize that the game was rigged.

I think that “Crisis peas” are swelling rapidly underneath all the shells today. The politicians and media are having a harder time moving the peas and shells fast enough to keep us guessing. Many will be confounded when they realize that the rigged game distracted and delayed them from making better choices.

The elections held here and elsewhere after the “Crisis peas” no longer can be hidden will be most interesting.

Chuck

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August 29, 2012

Peak Education

In recent years I have witnessed the descriptions of several resource peaks, from oil to water, grain to gold, and peak economy. One additional resource peak that has drawn my attention over the last several months, occurring even as I write this piece, is “peak” education.

Education is the sacred political issue that no one tampers with, at least until now. As state revenues decline across the country, state institutions of higher learning are reeling from cuts in state support, and are raising tuitions at unprecedented rates. Public schools are finding their state allocations cut, and consequently have begun making painful cuts to programs, teacher salaries, benefits, and maintenance. Utah has even considered eliminating the 12th grade, making that year of study an optional choice for students.

Ever increasing energy has been the foundation for modern society during the past several hundred years. First it was coal, and then came oil. In between the wind was harnessed to pump water, mill grain, and sail ships to facilitate commerce. As energy allowed more and more work to be done by machine, access to additional energy sources made the mechanized process faster and cheaper than manual labor.

Energy began to work its way into our everyday lives. Additional energy required more education to expand its uses. Formal education began to be the norm. High school developed after the mid 1800’s when it became apparent that soldiers needed more education to be effective using the new weapons that energy made possible. Our society became more complex and dependent upon additional education to utilize all of the additional energy and the revenue it provided.

Now, our society has come to resemble a giant mechanical watch with a broken winding stem. Energy, now in the form of an unwinding main spring, provides the power to move all of the gears in unison. One of those gears is education. As the main spring winds down, all the gears begin to move more slowly. With the faulty winding stem, everyone is seeking alternate methods to rewind the main spring of energy resource. We are finding many alternatives insufficient, turning the winding stem only a quarter turn or so.

As the energy supply providing the revenue becomes less effective, so do all of those society pieces that depend on the main spring, energy, for their function to continue at the previous pace. Education will shrink, along with law enforcement, fire protection, infrastructure maintenance and other public services dependent upon the revenue supplied by the weakening mainspring of energy.

What follows when the education gear begins to slow down, along with the other gears? At first there will be small things, elimination of field trips, less frequent replacement of textbooks, infrequent updates to lab equipment or computers, larger class sizes, etc. Then the changes become more pronounced. We begin to see things like fewer teachers, elimination of extracurricular activities, drastically reduced bussing, deferred maintenance, and elimination of non-core educational offerings. Further slowing of the education gear will bring about serious discussion at the state levels regarding the amount of education that can be supplied on reduced energy revenue. At some point, the current K-12 structure could be seriously questioned and revamped. Are you seeing or hearing discussions of any of the above items in your school districts today? I am not aware of any school district that isn’t dealing with one or more of these issues.

This phenomenon will not be confined solely to public school systems. Private schools and universities/colleges will be facing a similar fate. Today’s economy is a dismal landscape for a recent graduate to venture into. With reduced revenues, private schools and colleges/universities will raise tuitions, while paring back degree offerings. Many who before would have chosen a college education will now be forced to reconsider the costs and rewards. The university I attended was huge, some 25,000 students on campus at that time. Today it has over 50,000 students. Sustaining an infrastructure of that size will be no more possible than sustaining a city infrastructure for a 400 square mile city, when the energy driven spring winds down.

This can’t happen you think; education is too important. Do you think we are the first society to pose that thought? Many skills and technologies have been gained, and then lost over the centuries, only to be re-discovered in recent times. Storage batteries were in use around 300 B.C. After the fall of the Roman Empire, it would be nearly 1400 years before they were “re-discovered”. Similar things have happened with brain surgery, which was in use several hundred years B.C. and then lost with the fall of the Roman Empire, and not “re-discovered” until the 1930s. Education all but vanished in the “Dark Ages”.

I believe that we reached peak education at some time in the last five or six years. We are presently on a plateau now, but as energy and revenue derived from all functions dependent on it decline, so will education. In the next 24 months or so, it will become obvious to many (even with the cooked book statistics we are fed), that future growth of our economy will be miniscule when compared to what it was in the past. Without that growth, there can be no increase in the public services that we take for granted, only reductions.

Just like peak oil, there are no bright spots on the horizon for the future of public services such as an educational system. How will we cope, and what will be the total impact on society as a whole? Only time will tell.

Chuck

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April 15, 2012

Where Will the Grandkids Live?

For several months I have pondered the above question. As we age we become more reflective than when we were young, and the hustle and bustle of life filled every waking minute. No, I am not talking about the geographic location of their future life, but the time period in which they will live, and what their way of life may be.

My study and research over the past 6 years have led myself and many others to believe that we are about to embark upon a very unique time in the history of mankind on this planet. I believe we are about to witness time running backward with the decline of the oil age. I’m not talking about the hands of your clock moving in reverse, but the achievements that we have come to embrace and depend upon gradually ceasing to exist in a useable form, for those living at that time. It will be living as if we were at the back of the history book, and reading forward to the front as the passage of time moves ahead.

Skills, materials, processes, and techniques crucial to our lives today will gradually be replaced by less sophisticated and less efficient skills, materials, processes, and techniques similar to those of a bygone era. James Kuntsler has written extensively about this process in several of his books. Many have read his works and pushed them aside as being a very imaginative work of fiction that surely never could happen. After all, the great works of fiction written in the past, such as those of Jules Verne, have suggested forward growth to the time period we are familiar with today. Not so fast though. Has there been a historical precedent when the very process of regression actually did occur?

Because of the diligent work of historians and archeologists in the last several decades, we have a view of a significant period of time in which such a regression indeed has occurred. Many techniques and technologies from this prior period were lost to humanity, for hundreds or even thousands of years, only to be “re-discovered” in the last two centuries. That period of time existed from around the fall of the Roman Empire in 476 AD forward. With its demise, many skills and technologies were lost. Hydraulic setting cement, which is an extensive component used to build our modern seaports, bridges, navigation channels, and dams, was lost with the fall of the Roman Empire, and not re-discovered until 1300 years later.

Modern brain surgery dating from around 1935, actually had its origins as far back as 7000 BC, but that skill also disappeared during the fall of the Roman Empire, only to be re-discovered 78 years ago.

The Antikythera Mechanism, a very sophisticated analog scientific computer, comprised of many intricate gears and dials, was in use during the first century BC, but its use was lost around the fall of Roman Empire, only to be re-discovered in the mid 1800’s. Not until the late 1800’s could precise gears be made to replicate some of the functions found in the earlier device from 1900 years previous.

History reveals that we have had massive society regression on a large scale in the past. To think ourselves immune to that today is faulty societal thinking. My belief is that we will begin to experience this process at a gradually accelerating pace sometime within the next five years. The decline of the oil age, and depletion of other natural resources will begin to remove the familiar from our lives at an ever increasing pace. All are now familiar with the predicted demise of the fossil fueled private transportation, and commercial air travel. What other goods and services also will begin a slow disappearing act? Just about anything depending on a supply of fossil fuel in its manufacture, transportation or content can be expected to decline in availability. Modern medicine, modern electronics, abundant affordable food, clothing, plastics, glues, building materials, school supplies, sports equipment, and just about anything your else your eyes see today.

So where do I think my grandchildren will live when they are 40 (ages today 10, 14, and 21)? I think they will live in a world very similar to the first decade of the last century. There will be some electricity available, mostly in the cities I think, but it will be intermittent. Those who are lucky enough still to have a land line will maintain some communication ability. There will be limited use of airplanes, but not for air travel. Medicine and medical supplies will be limited and not available in the variety that we have today. Anything plastic will be a curiosity, and not currently available. Radio, TV and Internet will become “things of the past” . Media, and the internet to some extent, exist only for one purpose, to advertise goods and services for you to buy. At some point the amount and variety of available goods will decline to a level that will no longer sustain the operational expense of any of those venues.

We seem to be building a better mouse trap for ourselves worldwide. The written word and pictures are now converting to an all electronic format. Book store closings abound. What will result when the lack of energy and fossil fuel chemicals make the devices displaying that media unavailable? A great amount of collective and personal history, along with “how to” will vanish. We will still have libraries with “hands on” physical books, but new material will be slow to obtain.

The hardest reality that my grandchildren will experience, will be the memory of a time when many more conveniences and goods were commonplace and available. If you were able to go back and ask people living at the beginning of the last century about the quality of their lives, they would likely tell you that life was pretty good for them. Quality of life would appear to them to be far better than that experienced by their ancestors.

I think that many generations may pass before the world, its people, and its resources will regain some form of sustainable equilibrium.

Where do you think your grandchildren will live?

Chuck

Filed Under: Categories, Couples/Families, Others Reactions, Preparations, Priorities, Psychological Issues 1 Comment
March 25, 2012

Dead Reckoning

From the beginning of time, people have used a process to navigate their way around their environment. Today we call this process “Dead Reckoning”. In its simplest form, one starts from a known reference point and heads out in a particular direction for a certain number of steps, miles, days or weeks, to arrive at a previously unseen destination. As time went on, we added some sophistication to the process by factoring in water currents, winds and more accurate distance measuring, along with a magnetic compass for directional guidance. Until the availability of GPS, this was a fairly common method of navigation on the seas or in the air.

The prime requirement for dead reckoning always is to set out from a known reference point. All the other tools and processes are built upon that single requirement to hopefully deliver you close to your desired destination. If one starts from an unknown reference point, there is no indication as to what direction will lead to a desired destination.

A comment that I read in various blogs and news articles about the economy and the energy dilemmas is something to the effect of “We have never seen this combination of conditions before.” “We are in uncharted waters”. It will be very hard for us to proceed ahead, because there is no known reference point today, and hence no particular known direction to go. Friends have commented that we seem to be unsure as a nation as to what we should do, and so we have gridlock in our legislative bodies. Business is unsure of the environment it which it finds itself, and is unwilling to make any commitment to one particular direction or another. As this strange economic and energy uncertainty continues, we will see only increased gridlock both in government and in business.

Gridlock goes beyond government and business. All of us have become ensnared by a mental gridlock that sometimes brings us to a complete standstill. It is not hard to find examples of this gridlock among “peak-oilers”. One group advocates the direction of a deep woods hideaway in Montana or Wyoming. Another group advocates the direction of the transition movement. Still another group advocates the direction of stockpiling food and weapons while sheltering in place.

All of us have a desired destination of “Security”. Since we have arrived at landmarks for economy and energy that we do not recognize today, it is very difficult to plot a future course to “Security”. We are at a place in time where our internal GPS is telling us “recalculating”. To make matters worse, a concise description of what “Security” even looks like makes setting a Dead Reckoning course ever more difficult. My mental image of where “Security’s” location is likely to be far different from yours.

The economic reference location at which we currently find ourselves, although not at all familiar to us, bears certain similarities to such a time 82 years ago. Even this similarity has not been of significant help to us today in determining our new direction, as our experts have tried several courses from our current reference point, and we still seem totally lost. The energy reference point is by far the more problematic since the world has never been at this reference point in recorded history. Dead reckoning will serve no purpose here, because we really don’t know where we are going, or even a general direction in which to proceed.

The old saying “If you don’t know what to do, do nothing” will drive many to do just that. But that could be a very poor choice for this journey. Some known things will hinder us on this journey, such as debt, and we should try to rid ourselves of as much of that as possible before venturing further. We know some things that we will need on the journey, such as water, food, shelter, working with our hand skills, and clothing to name a few. We should be using this time before a direction to “Security” becomes clear, to develop alternative ways to meet all of those needs.

If you think that drinkable water comes from the faucet, electricity from the outlet, food and clothing from the store, and money from the bank, then you must consider what alternatives you will use if one or more of those necessities become unavailable while we are plotting what we perceive as our personal course to “Security”. Now is the time to acquire the alternative means to supply the daily necessities, while we wait to discern a reference location from which to launch towards our vision of “Security”.

Gridlock does not work in government or in business. To set a Dead Reckoning course today from our present unknown reference points may expend valuable resources and time, and deliver us to a destination that is less than desirable. Our destination of “Security” will look different to each one of us, and we must use our time and resources wisely before embarking on our journey.

Today, we find ourselves struggling to navigate through uncharted waters, sailing as yet upon uncharted seas.

Only you can determine your perceived location of our present reference point, and only you can set your Dead Reckoning course to your own future and proceed.

Chuck

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March 8, 2012

The Limits of Technology

Last week we watched an unusual early spring outbreak of tornados from Kansas through Virginia. Some 39 people lost their lives in these violent storms. Having viewed the destruction on nightly TV news programs, it is amazing the fatalities weren’t even higher. During that outbreak, one community, Harveyville, Kansas, was hit without warning, with the loss of a resident. What made this particular incident so unnerving was the fact that the community was close to a powerful weather radar facility and experienced weather bureau staff. The storm had produced a tornado in an adjacent county prompting a warning for that county. But the radar seemed to show the storm falling apart quickly, and the weather bureau staff chose not to extend the warning to the next county, and the sirens didn’t sound.

It was not the fault of the radar or the radar operator in the interpretation of all those green, red and yellow displays. It was simply the fact that technology can do only so much in the detection and analysis of impending natural weather events. After many decades as a trained storm spotter, I have come to accept the limitations of technology in “Tornado Alley”, where there is no substitute for eyes on the ground. It may come as a shock to some that radar does not see a large percentage of tornados on the ground or funnel clouds aloft. We have become complacent in expecting that the colorful displays we see on TV are the final word on the threats before us. We have trusted that technology has reached a point where we no longer have to worry about a surprise attack from Mother Nature. Nothing could be further from the truth.

What surprised the weather bureau after the 2011 tornado outbreaks in Alabama and the Joplin tornado was the loss of life, some 500 plus individuals, the greatest loss since 1936, long before radar had been invented. Clearly, from the devastation observed, early warnings kept that loss from being many times greater. It demonstrated that technology was a significant contributor to preserving lives, but it was not a total solution to their living safely with Mother Nature on the rampage.

So what does all this rambling have to do with Peak Oil Blues? Over the past several days I have received several e-mails from friends about “new” technology in the oil and gas fields making us energy independent in a few short years. First of all, the “new” technology is some 60+ years old; it is only since oil and gas have reached higher prices allowing newer technologies to be employed.

Secondly, we have collectively come to expect that technology will triumph over any obstacle, even if it is the total lack of an available resource. As a nation we have allowed ourselves to become lulled into complacency, assuming that the wizards of technology will somehow allow us to extract the proverbial blood from a turnip, and therefore, we as a population have to do nothing but sit back, and continue our customary driving and consuming, while waiting. We much prefer to accept hype over facts, which can be uncomfortable.

But what happens when the population runs directly into the limits of technology? I think that like the storms of weather, we will face the storms of economics and energy. There will be many consequences where people and these storms collide. The consequences will be physical, economic, emotional, mental, and intellectual. Many will ask “Why didn’t the sirens sound?” so that we could take precautions and make preparations. The result will be very troubling times. There are no guidelines to follow. As a population we will have to write the “book” on how to deal with the decline of the energy age from Chapter 1 forward, since this has not occurred before. Many authors and websites have written the Preface; we will have to build upon their work.

Technology is a wonderful thing, but we must understand its limits in supplying solutions for our daily needs. Some of that supply will have to come from the work of our own hands and those immediately around us (community).

From all appearances, the economics and energy storm in reality is not diminishing, but the technology is not really detecting that, either from an omission or commission in reading its displays. Our technology is nearing its limits, but public awareness is almost “nil” that a storm indeed is approaching.

The sirens should be wailing now for you to take precautions, but they remain silent.

This is the time for you to have eyes to the sky.

Chuck

Filed Under: Categories, Preparations, Priorities 4 Comments
February 22, 2012

The Essentials – Less with Less

Recently, our local government held a budget retreat to plan the 2013 budget. The press release following this preliminary budget goal setting was sobering at the minimum. We are by now accustomed to government officials applying the most positive possible spin on an announcement. If this were indeed the positive spin, I hate to contemplate the true reality.

The government official stated to those gathered; “We can no longer do more with less, or even the same with less; that clearly we are going to do less with less”. He further stated “everything is on the table”. Today the local area comprised of a half million individuals is not yet grappling with double digit unemployment; it has the enviable unemployment rate of 6.7 percent. Nor is it grappling with severe mismanagement issues. However, as so many other government entities, it is grappling with sharply declining revenues, caused by the popping of the real estate bubble. This is an issue that will continue to grow during the course of the next few years.

This announcement is a story that many of the readers of Peak Oil Blues already have been living for the past 2 years or more, but it is just now beginning to arrive in my area. Many will read the first 2 paragraphs and yawn saying “been there, done that”. Let’s look more closely to determine why this issue here is so important.

It is occurring in an area that is not yet undergoing severe economic distress. That should be cause for alarm in other parts of the country where already unemployment is off the charts, and business is drying up. Secondly, it is a sign that things are truly not improving within our national economy. Finally, that our government officials do not see any improvement, or recovery on the horizon. This is not a short term problem with a quick fix. Painful reductions will be required to bring expenses and available revenues into balance.

As governments respond by trimming services and resources, the risks and responsibilities will be shifted right back on the shoulders of individual citizens. As the revenue continues its downward slide, many of the services that we depend on (the Essentials) to keep our communities and ourselves personally intact will contract to the point of being just a remaining shadow of service. Imagine having severe chest pains, calling 911, only to be informed that the EMS service can’t get to you until they have taken care of the three other citizens already waiting ahead of you. Picture yourself calling in to report a burglary in progress, only to be told that the only available law enforcement cannot be there for another 2 hours, responding to a backlog of more pressing calls. Does this sound like the plot of a horror movie? Already this has become the reality in several areas our country today. I expect living in such scenarios to become more prevalent during the next 12 months.

The continued eroding of our Essentials will cause great anxiety over the next few years. It will be up to us as individuals to try to prevent break-ins, reduce fire hazards, and build enough cohesive strength of community around us to assist with such needs as transport to emergency medical care. Our responsibilities for well being are being shifted back to us from all levels of government. Our 911 system is a wonderful thing, but only if the needed help arrives in a timely manner. We suddenly find ourselves having to shoulder more of the responsibility for meeting the challenges of protecting our lives and property.

Fuel costs will impact many of our commercially supplied “Essentials”. The responsibility for locating and acquiring those “Essentials” will be totally our own. Right now, the responsibility is shared between the store owner and yourself. As long as the store owners can make a profit, after covering overhead, they will continue to try to meet their responsibility as a supplier to you the customer. But as the profit from doing so diminishes under the weight of rising fuel costs, owners will supply progressively fewer of your “Essentials”.

If you want to do an interesting experiment starting today, go to your favorite food store, pick an aisle in the canned goods area, count the number of steps from the beginning of the aisle to the end. Walk up and down the aisle several times; note the variety and brands of canned goods carefully. Repeat this process a year from now and see if anything has changed. This only works if the store doesn’t “remodel”. “Remodel” is a convenient term used to hide the fact that the store no longer carries as much merchandise or variety by shuffling its locations around the store. We will see lots of “remodeling” in the future.

Many of you will say this is too gloomy a posting, and surely cannot happen here. The sad fact is that already it is happening around you. The pace of change to a less with less lifestyle is gradual now and not readily apparent unless one stops and looks, but the dark horizon suggests that the process is about to speed up.

As our government officials stated “we can’t get more with less, or keep the same with less”. We will have to deal as individuals and communities with living less with less. The “essentials” are not only supplies, but services too. The time to start determining how you will accommodate a future with “less” is today.

After today the time that remains to make your plans is less.

Chuck

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February 6, 2012

Lies, Pipe Dreams, and Promises

In the United States it is election season. In all the other seasons that we observe, it is readily apparent which season you are in. The green grass and bright flowers signal Spring, then comes the warm (or hot) Summer sun and lots of outdoor activities. The Fall brings us the vivid color of fall trees and a slight hint of cooler air. Soon afterward we are forced to put on coats to brave the cold winds and snow that follows Fall into Winter. The climate seasons are regular as day following night.

Every two years in the United States we are subjected to election season, with the fourth year being the most pronounced. Unfortunately, it lasts for a full year, a very long season. You know when election season has started, because every media outlet, (TV, radio, and print) is spewing forth a great collection of Lies, Pipe Dreams, and Promises from the candidates for office. Truth, if it is anywhere to be found, can be measured only in micro quantities. The voting public seems to be swayed not by what is best, but what is loudest.

In prior days and times, when there were enough economic and fossil fuel resources, electing the wrong person or group wouldn’t have a lot of impact, because the bureaucratic process moved so slow. A bad choice could be modified in two years or replaced in four without too much damage being done. Today though, the story is different. Those of us who are involved with Peak Oil realize that civilization is walking on a razor thin wire of resources. The economic and spare fossil fuel nets have been pulled from beneath our path. It is a perilous walk indeed, not only for the United States, but the rest of the world.

Yet we have leaders and candidates that are uttering Lies, Pipe Dreams, and Promises that are so far from reality that it is absolutely frightening. Their grand visions and plans are built on assumptions of spare economic and fuel resources that simply don’t exist. Their pronouncements of 100 years of this or that energy source aren’t built on facts, but on hype straight out of energy companies public relations departments that was designed to keep investment dollars flowing, not energy.

As the choices for leadership in our government process narrow down, I keep wishing there was a “None of the Above” box on the ballot. I see no candidate with a realistic vision of the future, just a vision crafted by pollsters to gather the votes. I suppose it has always been that way, but today the times ahead are too difficult and perilous to allow pollsters to craft our national vision. Unfortunately, it is the process today. The public will grumble and raise their voice a little after the election when they discover the lies they were told and the false promises of a future that doesn’t exist. But somewhere the public will reach a point where they are like the news anchor character in the movie “Network” who loses his grip on his mental state and runs to the window, throwing it open and screaming to no one in particular “I’m mad as hell and I’m not going to take it anymore!” Are we there yet? Perhaps.

Or will this season of Lies, Pipe Dreams, and Promises just pass like so many before it?

Chuck

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January 23, 2012

The Background Music Has Gone Silent

 

In the dark ages as a lad, I attended many of the “horror” or “monster” movies of the time. There were such notables as “The Thing”, “Them”, “The Creature from the Black Lagoon”, “Godzilla”, “The Blob”, “The Tingler”, “Kronos”, “The Creature from Beneath the Sea”, and many others. Today’s audiences would consider those movies more comical than horrific because of the crude special effects of that day and time. Today’s audiences require several gallons of fake blood and body parts before the movie can be even remotely considered as a “horror” movie.

But one common ingredient between those movies of yesteryear and today is the same. That is the background music. It alerts our minds that something really sinister is about to happen. The background music is not itself notable, in fact it is notable in that it isn’t really noticed during the movie. Still it is there. As the tension builds in the plot, the music becomes louder and louder, causing us to sit on the edge of the seat, afraid to look, but afraid to turn away. The music tells us subconsciously to stay alert something horrible may happen. Our inner voice wants to yell “Don’t open that door!”, “Don’t get out of the car!”, “Don’t go see what made that noise”. Common sense tells us this is time for flight, not mere curiosity. In the movie world, an expendable actor or actress ventures forth to investigate the noise or phenomena that is just off screen( usually at night). The background music rises almost overwhelming the senses. Then the expendable character sees nothing and the background music goes silent, allowing us to let down our guard. As players begin to return to a place of safety, the monster strikes. Then the music begins to rise again as the previously unknown monster now goes after the stars, who miraculously escape to spread the alarm.

So what does that have to do with “Peak Oil Blues”? Last fall we were being treated to a lot of daily background music that kept rising in volume. The music accompanied some of the visuals we saw in the media. Some was anecdotal about a layoff here, a business closure or failure there, a neighbor whose house was foreclosed, or who lost a job. The music in our minds kept us on the edge of our seats. It seemed like we couldn’t open the newspaper or turn on the TV without some ominous image or story seeming to suggest that a horrible economic or energy monster was about to strike us in our prime. Suggestions of countries collapsing, whole economic systems evaporating right in front of our eyes, leaving us victims of this unfolding horror movie, were daily occurrences. These visions drove the background music to an even louder intensity. You could almost feel the tension in the air tapping you on the shoulder. Anxiety levels were rising along with the background music. The Occupy movement gave evidence that something was wrong.

Then in mid December it happened. What? Nothing! We looked around and the background music had gone silent. No longer was the music rising to the stories of diesel shortages in the northern plains and Canada. No longer did the music accompany the stories of Eurozone collapse, or Chinese economic problems. We breathed a sigh of relief and coasted through the holidays feeling free of worry over what might be out there in the night.

But did the economic and energy monsters really decide that our politicians, technology, and media were a force too formidable and slink off into the night? I don’t think so. Just within the last week noises have begun emanating from the bushes out in the darkness of the future. And the noises were not made by rabbits looking for food. First we heard the noise of the World Bank forecasting that 2012 would make 2008/2009 look like child’s play. Then another bush rustled and we heard the noise of the Nigerian oil industry on strike. And the bushes around the Middle East still continue to rustle. All we can hope for is the monster rustling in the bushes isn’t as large as the sounds it is making in the dark. Perhaps it is a really clumsy monster!

I don’t think the economic and energy monsters have gone back to hiding to plan a new strategy. I think they still remain in the bushes nearby, waiting to pounce at any moment. The old saying over the centuries has been “the calm before the storm”. I think we are now in that calm right before either or both monsters re-emerge to confront us. If you are preparing for this oncoming storm, that is great, you need to redouble your efforts. If you aren’t preparing, you need to start. You can’t effectively battle “The Creature from the Black Lagoon” (was the “Black Lagoon” an early reference to a lake of oil??) with a set of car keys and a bunch of nifty cell phone apps.

The silence of the background music during this brief calm should provide incentive sufficient for us to begin or continue to prepare ourselves for less energy, less money, less security, less food, less mobility, less comfort, less convenience, to name a few.

Those who fail to prepare themselves will be the expendable actors in this drama.

Chuck

Filed Under: Categories, Educational Efforts, Finances 5 Comments
November 29, 2011

Do Your Homework

I am amazed that those of us in the peak oil community have been able to come to any consensus or perception regarding the dilemma before us, considering the amount of inaccurate and conflicting information that has been spread in front of us. Were this 20 years ago without the power of the internet, I’m certain none of us would have any awareness of peak oil. Our perception would be that the glass is full, unless somehow told otherwise.

We are all familiar with the question, “is the glass half empty, or half full?” Perception of the economic and energy environment around us elicits the same wide spectrum of responses, even though the information we are receiving is similar. Many will perceive no existing problem; “the earth is half full of fossil fuel resources”. Another group will be alarmed; their perception is that “the earth is half empty of fossil fuel resources”. There is yet another group that will see nothing at all; they are consumed by their own personal issues or the trivia of life.

If the information we were receiving were unbiased and not manipulated for political or corporate purposes, perception of the economic or energy environment could be debated intelligently. However, our perception is being manipulated along with the information that we are receiving. There is an old saying in the information technology world; “garbage in—garbage out”. It is very difficult to perceive an understanding of a complete situation if we have only partial information, or if the available public information is corrupted.

On June 1, 2009 Air France flight 447 departed Brazil en-route to Paris. Halfway through the flight something went terribly wrong and the aircraft was lost with all 228 on board. Subsequent recovery of the flight data recorder from the bottom of the Atlantic this spring revealed that multiple airspeed sensors had iced over, with each sensor reporting erroneous airspeed readings. The autopilot computers were programmed to disengage when multiple conflicting readings were detected and revert to manual control. The experienced pilots could not perceive the aircraft’s true condition from the erroneous and conflicting information, thus the aircraft remained in a dangerous attitude that several minutes later resulted in its crash.

We have great difficulty today developing an accurate perception of our own energy and economic environment. Like the highly experienced pilots of the ill fated Air France flight, we are being bombarded with wildly gyrating information. Crude oil prices are up, but the price at the pump is way down. Corporate profits are down but the market is up. The economy is recovering but more people are unemployed. Even “experts” are confused because energy and the economy are in unusual positions not seen before.

Fortunately, we in the peak oil community have been exposed to some highly trained and experienced people who have worked as detectives piecing together the information needed, allowing us to do our own homework regarding upcoming dilemmas, and their possible personal impacts. Our general knowledge will not guarantee that we remain calm when the majority is panicking. What our declining economic and energy homework will do, is allow us to make wiser choices today.

The peak oil community has perceived for a long time that turmoil would accompany declining energy, and that the economy would mirror that turmoil. Keep searching out information, to help you formulate your plans. Try to be an observer of the turmoil and panic, not a participant.

It appears the turmoil has begun, or is very close.

Chuck

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